Iran

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On Wed, 23 Jan 2008 17:34:38 -0600, "Col David G. Brunner USA ret forwarded" :

Israel may have to take military action against Iran - by Ron Bousso -
www.metimes. com

HERZLIYA, Israel (AFP) Former US ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton
said on Monday that Israel may have to take military action to prevent its arch
foe Iran from acquiring an atomic bomb.

Bolton also said that further UN sanctions against the Islamic republic will be
ineffective in stopping Iran's controversial nuclear program which Israel and
the US believe is aimed at developing a bomb -- a claim denied by Tehran.

"One can say with some assurance that in the next year the use of force by the
United States is highly unlikely," Bolton told AFP on the sidelines of the
Herzliya conference on the balance of Israel's national security.

"That increases the pressure on Israel in that period of time... if it feels
Iran is on the verge of acquiring that capability, it brings the decision point
home to use force," he said.

The hawkish former diplomat said that after a US intelligence report published
late last year that claimed Iran had suspended a nuclear weapons program in
2003, the US was unlikely to take military action against it.

"The pressure is on Israel now after the National Intelligence Estimate because,
I think, the likelihood of American use of force has been dramatically reduced,"
he said.

Widely considered the Middle East's sole if undeclared nuclear power, Israel
considers Iran its number one enemy following repeated statements by President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for the Jewish state to be wiped off the map.

Bolton said that military action against Iran should be taken before Tehran
acquires a bomb.

"The calculus in the region changes dramatically once Iran has nuclear
capability, meaning the preemptive use of force or the overthrow of the Iranian
regime has to come before they get the weapon," Bolton said.

"If you are worried about an Iran with nuclear weapons and an extreme
theological regime in power, the time to take the plan of action is before Iran
acquires the weapons.

"Once it acquires the weapons there is a risk of retaliation with nuclear
capability and that's why Israel is in danger -- it is a very small country and
two or three nuclear weapons (and) there is no more country. The pressure to act
is intensive and the window of time available is narrow."

Bolton also said that despite Iranian threats to hit hard if it is attacked,
"their response will be a lot more measured than people think."

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert last week said that all options were on the
table to prevent an Iranian bomb. The Israeli military last week also
successfully test-fired a ballistic missile said to be able to carry a
non-conventional warhead.

Bolton said that a new round of United Nations Security Council sanctions
against Iran was "unlikely" and that Tehran would not be deterred by further
diplomatic sanctions.

"Maybe there will be another resolution but it will be even more toothless than
the previous two sanction resolutions. .. International pressure through
diplomacy of sanction has no chance of shifting Iran's policies over the next
year."

A senior Israeli security official said in reaction that "one should listen very
closely to what Bolton has to say."