Hamas Threatens to Overrun Israeli Border Next - Tuesday, Jan. 29 2008

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Hamas Threatens to Overrun Israeli Border Next By Nissan Ratzlav-Katz
Encouraged by their success in breaking through the Egyptian border with Gaza last week, a Hamas spokesman has threatened to gather 500,000 Palestinian Authority residents of the region for a similar assault on the perimeter fence dividing southern Israel from PA-controlled Gaza.
Ahmad Yousef... Called the fall of the barrier between Egyptian Sinai and Gaza... A sign of the start of “a third Intifada.”

Ahmad Yousef, political advisor to the Gaza-based PA leader Ismail Haniyeh, called the fall of the barrier between Egyptian Sinai and Gaza last week a sign of the start of “a third Intifada.” Speaking with the PA's Bethlehem-based Maan news agency, Yousef said the next stage in such a campaign could involve thousands of Gazan Arabs swarming the IDF-controlled Erez Crossing between Israel and and the PA in an effort to attract international support.
Meanwhile, Hamas militia forces cooperated with Egyptian soldiers on Monday in closing one of three gaps in the security barrier in the city of Rafiah, which straddles the Egyptian-Gaza border. Barbed wire was strung across a section of the separation wall known as the Brazil Gate; however, the main gate in the area remained open, allowing Gaza Arabs to continue to enter Egyptian towns unimpeded. Last week, when Egyptian forces attempted to close the border on their own, a PA bulldozer knocked a new opening in the separation wall.
The partial border control collaboration comes after Egyptian security forces ordered all stores in El-Arish, bordering the Gaza region, to close as of Sunday. Trucks loaded with goods and supplies were prevented from leaving El-Arish towards Rafiah. The move deprived PA Arabs who had charged into the Sinai from Gaza during the past week of a central economic incentive for their having done so.
Since the border breach on Wednesday of last week, representatives of Fatah, headed by PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas, have met with Egyptian officials to discuss the situation in Gaza. Both Fatah and Hamas are asking to take control of the Egypt-Gaza crossings. On Monday, Egypt sent 6,000 soldiers to reinforce troops and police stationed in Rafiah, with several Hamas terrorists reportedly taking part in the new deployment.
Gaza Terrorists Launch An Attack
Since last week, Egyptian forces in the Sinai Peninsula have arrested dozens of armed PA Arabs who crossed the breached Gaza frontier. Security forces in southern Israel remain on high alert due to concerns that PA terrorists from Gaza are attempting to infiltrate Israel by way of Egypt.
Terrorists in the Gaza region managed to launch one lone attack on an Israeli target on Monday. PA militia forces fired a mortar shell at the Kissufim Crossing on Monday evening. The shell landed near the Eshkol region crossing, but caused no significant damage. No injuries were reported in the attack.


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2. Shas Sends Encouraging Message to PM Olmert

By Hillel Fendel
Just a day after the Shas party announced that it would quit the government if Israel begins negotiating the future of Jerusalem, the party's spiritual leader phoned Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to encourage him before the release of the possibly incriminating Winograd Report.
"Be strong and of good courage, and do not fear," Rabbi Yosef told Olmert Tuesday morning, promising his party's continued support. The rabbi's about-face was enabled by Olmert's announcement yesterday that talks on Jerusalem are not expected to begin in the near future. Other analysts see it differently, surmising that this is Shas' way of saying goodbye to the government.
Rabbi Yosef heads the Shas Council of Torah Sages, which decided on Sunday evening that the party would quit the government the moment talks begin with the Palestinian Authority about the future of Jerusalem. The decision was made just a week and a half after Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel Our Home) party quit the government - in protest of the start of negotiations with the Palestinian Authority over so-called "core issues.."
Violation of Promise to US
Olmert's announcement that he does not plan to discuss Jerusalem right away negates his recent promises to both U.S. President George Bush and PA leader Mahmoud Abbas to immediately begin negotiations on all the core outstanding issues between Israel and the PA - including Jerusalem.

At present, the Olmert government still represents a majority of the Israeli Parliament's 120 members. If and when Shas and its 11 MKs quit, however, Olmert will head a minority government vulnerable to a simple no-confidence motion in the Knesset. In such a case, left-wing Meretz and possibly the Arab parties are likely to prop him up for at least a certain period, in the hope that he will advance negotiations with the Palestinian Authority.

Looming only 30 hours away is the release on Wednesday at 6 PM of the Winograd Report on the government's handling of the Second Lebanon War. The report will not directly call for Olmert to quit, but it is likely that its expected strong criticism of him - as appeared in a preliminary report several months ago - will lead to a wave of public pressure for his resignation.
The War's Last 60 Hours
Media analyses of the Winograd Report concentrate on the final 60 hours of the Second Lebanon War, during which Olmert ordered a ground offensive that cost 35 soldiers' lives - despite, or because of, the fact that a UN-brokered ceasefire was about to go into effect. The report's determination regarding Olmert's decisions and performance during this period will be critical regarding Israel's political future.

Investigative reporter Yoav Yitzchak, editor of the NFC Hebrew news site, says Olmert is working on several fronts to prevent his coalition from crumbling and the subsequent calling of new elections. The Prime Minister continues to sustain ties with Lieberman, so that he won't work actively to topple the government, and is also maintaining contacts with Labor - Olmert's largest coalition partner, with 19 MKs - to head off voices there calling to quit the government.
Labor Party leader Ehud Barak, who promised several months ago to quit the government after the release of the Winograd Report, has backtracked somewhat. He now says that he will wait to read the report's conclusions before making a decision.