Physics&Geology Experts---Earth Changing Poles?????????

[bronzediva]

It is agreed by most geologist and scientists that the earth has almost completed it's wobble which will theoretically by 2012. What I want to know is where will the poles be located? I can see that the weather is changing but are the north and south poles going to be at the equator or somewhere inbetween?

[godheadslament]

What you mean is that the precession cycle of the Earth - the wobble on it's axis (which is the combination of precession of the equinoxes and precession of the ellipse; referring to the elliptical orbit) will enter a new cycle at 2012.

From there, it will complete another cycle of 23,000 years, finishing in approximately 25,012AD.

So...where will the poles be?

There are a number of poles on the Earth, some of which experience wander, some of which do not (relatively speaking).

First of all, polar wander is not the same as precession. The change in a precession cycle does not induce a change in the polar position. But, I presume you still want to know about polar movement, so I'll go on.

The axis of the Earth (from which obliquity is measured) goes through the north and south geographical poles. These poles remain pretty much fixed.

They have shifted occasionally and discreetly; their movement (called true polar wander) can happen when the two larger moments of inertia are near equal. (To my knowledge, it is not a continuous process, someone correct me if I'm wrong). Usually, they are fixed.

The magnetic pole, on the other hand, which does wander is the point on the Earth's surface at which the Earth's magnetic field points vertically downwards (North magnetic pole) or upwards (south magnetic pole). These DO wander somewhat, but it is irrespective of the precession and obliquity of Earth, as I've mentioned.

So - where will the pole be in 2012 - well, the geographical north poles will remain where it is. But the magnetic pole shifts slowly, and as such will have only moved by a few degrees. The magnetic poles (to my knowledge) have never moved too close to the equator. My knowledge of mantle and core dynamics is a bit rusty, but I don't think physics permits it.

So, that's it. In summary, the North and South geographic poles aren't going anywhere, and a tortoise could outrun the magnetic pole, by quite a speed. Even though the precessional cycle is changing, it a) doesn't have anything to do with polar wander or b) weather and climate on scales of human lifetimes. The abnormal weather patterns you see are the result of global climate change by anthropogenic input of CO2 into the atmosphere (or so we believe).

I hope that was useful!